The framing trap occurs when we misstate a problem, undermining the entire decision-making process. This preview shows page 1 - 2 out of 3 pages. will you be able to share 12 negotiation strategies/tactics used in, . It seems psychologically safer to let him or her stay on, even though that choice only compounds the error. They can be as insidious as a stereotype about a persons skin color, accent, or dress. Perhaps the most interesting episode so far. Better yet, build the counterarguments yourself. The psychological miscues cascade, making it harder and harder to choose wisely. Strategic management: Formulation, implementation, and control (12th ed.). In October 1962, President John F. Kennedy (Greenwood) learns about the Soviet Union's plan of placing nuclear weapons in Cuba. This trap is . But bad decisions can often be traced back to the point where the decisions were made. The program helps people identify traps that can lead to suboptimal decisions and arms them with strategies for making the best decisions possible. Organizational Dynamics, 18(3): 19-31., References: Kreitner, R., & Kinicki, A. Leading Organizations: Perspective for a new era. analysis about the movie thirteen days movie analysis introduction the movie watched for this movie analysis assignment is thirteen days. That would require a great deal of data, carefully tracked over a long period of time. There were several factors that likely weighed heavily on Kennedy's mind as he debated what action to take. Having been trapped by an escalation of commitment, they had tried, consciously or unconsciously, to protect their earlier, flawed decisions. The way a problem is framed can profoundly influence the choices you make. And the recallability trap leads us to give undue weight to recent . The following part of the movie is related to Framing Trap. A constructive/ developmental analysis. Lets wait until the situation stabilizes. But as time passes, the existing structure becomes more entrenched, and altering it becomes harder, not easier. The judge is quick to point out just how severe the punishment will be for such a charge and reminds the jurors that the decision of guilty must be found so that there is not a single bit of doubt. During this time many crucial events in United States. Necessary cookies are absolutely essential for the website to function properly. These thirteen days were the time period in which the fate of the world was decided. Not surprisingly, we naturally look for reasons to do nothing. This will help you avoid being anchored by an initial estimate. We may not pursue a large gain if a small loss could be likely. A dramatic or traumatic event in your own life can also distort your thinking. Be on the lookout for the influence of sunk-cost biases in the decisions and recommendations made by your subordinates. Without fail, the answers to the second question increase by many millions when the larger figure is used in the first question. Humans' ability to use patterns helps us make decisions faster, but can also lead us into what NOLS teaches in our leadership curriculum as decision-making traps.. Favoring alternatives that perpetuate the existing situation Example: A key merger stumbles because the acquiring company avoids imposing a new management structure on the acquired company. Remember that the desirability of the status quo will change over time. Application Assignment- Thirteen Days 2 - Free download as Word Doc (.doc / .docx), PDF File (.pdf), Text File (.txt) or read online for free. This bias leads us to seek out information that supports our existing instinct or point of view while avoiding information that contradicts it. But the loans fail anyway. The first frame, with its reference point of zero, emphasizes incremental gains and losses, and the thought of losing triggers a conservative response in many peoples minds. In B. Kellerman (Ed.). 13.7 Getting Connected: The Case of Social Networking. She and her team have been diligently gathering information for weeks. Boston, MA: McGraw-Hill/Irwin., Pearce, J. Framing a decision: 6 ways to help you get it right. In this article, we examine a number of well-documented psychological traps that are particularly likely to undermine business decisions. How would you answer these two questions? It can result in opportunities not acted upon and lead to the triumph of the good enough.. Incremental Decision Process Model; 2. Thirteen Days is an American movie that was released in 2000. At the same time, look for opportunities to use anchors to your own advantageif youre the seller, for example, suggest a high, but defensible, price as an opening gambit. Get someone you respect to play devils advocate, to argue against the decision youre contemplating. The old numbers become anchors, which the forecaster then adjusts based on other factors. In one series of tests, people were asked to forecast the next weeks closing value for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. & Lewis, P. (1987). But heuristics can be highly fallible. trading Americans missiles in Turkey with Soviets missiles in Cuba) which what in the end became the final solution of the. The accomplishments to improve his environment leads his hope of continued survival. Our brains are always at work, sometimes, unfortunately, in ways that hinder rather than help us. Smart Choices: A Practical Guide to Making Better Decisions, John S. Hammond, Ralph L. Keeney, and Howard Raiffa, From the Magazine (SeptemberOctober 1998). The Cuban Missile Crisis was a thirteen-day, Thirteen Days The overconfidence trap makes us over-estimate the accuracy of our forecasts. Be particularly wary of anchors in negotiations. In seeking the advice of others, dont ask leading questions that invite confirming evidence. Learning Objectives. They can undermine everything from new-product development to acquisition and divestiture strategy to succession planning. The movie Thirteen Days is a movie about a series of discussion President of the United States of America goes through to resolve its political issues with Soviet Union. Thousand Oaks, California, U.S.A., In the investigation of the various characteristics and styles of leadership the emphasis of the style approach is the focus on the actions and behavioral characteristics of the leader. Defining what must be decided and determining in a preliminary way what criteria would cause you to prefer one option over another. Those who had heard the list with the more famous men thought there were more men on the list, while those who had heard the one with the more famous women thought there were more women. here, but we are not studying it." In addition, I believe itll be Berlin. Transforming leadership. I recommend airstrikes followed, by invasion. The dean made this decision because of what happened in, the past and how they played it back in those days. Tactical decisions are decisions about how things will get done. Initial impressions, estimates or data anchor subsequent thoughts and judgments. In October of 1962 a pressing matter arose during John F. Kennedys presidential term. Third, President rejected the guarantee of getting all the missile through surgical strike when mentioned by Cam. Linda was also concerned that her teams discussions often seemed to be about the pros and cons she had already articulated, and she wondered if there were angles they might be missing as they did their analysis. On a broad scale, we can see this tendency whenever a radically new product is introduced. First, President clearly denied Deans argument that the cooler heads would prevail before the next stage. Published 1 September 1998. It was made apparent that the Soviet Union was holding and building missiles in Cuba, it was named the Cuban missile crisis. In this movie, two of the main actors, they are Bruce Greenwood who acted as President John F. Kennedy and Kevin Costner act as Kenneth Kenny ODonnell. Initial impressions, estimates, or data anchor subsequent thoughts and judgments. Kennedy had suspicions that this option would cause a third World War and end in a nuclear fallout. One of the incidents I believe to be of Assumption testing is here. But executives can also take other simple steps to protect themselves and their organizations from these mental lapses. Test assumptions, meaning your mental model of the world. Kennedys determination to be a participative leader was, makes because his life depends on it. Fourth, Mcnamara proposed that they dont shoot over a freighter that they suspected to be full of baby food. Decision Making Traps The Status Quo Trap Looking at this situation through the sociological framework of feminism, the oppression and treatment of women as sexual objects is as clear as, Regarding informational processing roles, monitoring role was hold by JFK as he indirectly scanned for information (i.e. And, the scenario called for a blockade. Thirteen Days captures the tension that the crisis provoked and provides an example of how foreign policy was made in the last half of the 20th century. They were then told that they could easily exchange the gift they received for the other gift. Personally, I think Adlai is the coolest character in this movie since he was the one who propose the idea of political negotiation (i.e. Excellent decision-making is an essential tool used for management and leadership within an organization. The confirming-evidence bias not only affects where we go to collect evidence but also how we interpret the evidence we do receive, leading us to give too much weight to supporting information and too little to conflicting information. We fire ours.. You also have the option to opt-out of these cookies. It is an account of the thirteen days in October of 1962. Try these techniques: Imagine that youre the president of a successful midsized U.S. manufacturer considering whether to call off a planned plant expansion. Maybe her team's decision-making, her friend said, was being impacted by one or more of those traps. After reading this chapter, you should be able to do the following: Understand what is involved in decision making. Required fields are marked *. The decision sits on the desk of Germany's new defence minister Boris Pistorius, named on Tuesday to replace Christine Lambrecht. Thats why pilots are trained to use objective measures of distance in addition to their vision. Because anchors can establish the terms on which a decision will be made, they are often used as a bargaining tactic by savvy negotiators. Second, the decision of the President to cancel trip to Connecticut was rejected by Kenny and Bobby. Think of the implications for business decisions, in which major initiatives and investments often hinge on ranges of estimates. The room is so that there is a single table in the center surrounded by chairs along with a few chairs randomly placed against the wall. Using this approach, engineers designed weapons to operate under the worst possible combination of circumstances, even though the odds of those circumstances actually coming to pass were infinitesimal. Even if we are neither overly confident nor unduly prudent, we can still fall into a trap when making estimates or forecasts. Examine why admitting to an earlier mistake distresses you. He mentioned it was slow and would not get rid of the missiles. This movie is about The Cuban Missile Crisis which also known as The October Crisis in Cuba and the Caribbean Crisis in USSR. Bob said to Bobby that 6 months ago they gamed out a scenario. Here, the criteria set for taking a decision is based on peaceful initiatives (without using nuclear weapons). I would like to present the cases with Perception of Fairness. First, the humiliation of the failed Bay of Pigs invasion attempt still resonated in the President's mind. Its important to remember, though, that the best defense is always awareness. The owner of a local marine-salvage company gives you two options, both of which will cost the same: Plan A: This plan will save the cargo of one of the three barges, worth $200,000. On a more familiar level, you may have succumbed to this bias in your personal financial decisions. Thousand Oaks, CA: SAGE Publications, Inc., Bass, B. M. (1990). Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment. You think that an important part of the explanation may be related to the quality of institutions. The bank finally solved the problem by instituting a policy requiring that a loan be immediately reassigned to another banker as soon as any problem arose. This is an example of the status, Bobby talks to the generals. Afterward, the participants were asked to estimate the percentages of men and women on each list. Many mergers, for example, founder because the acquiring company avoids taking swift action to impose a new, more appropriate management structure on the acquired company. Never think of the status quo as your only alternative. Bad decisions can often be traced back to the way the decisions were made--the alternatives were not clearly defined, the right information was not collected, the costs and benefits were not accurately . Why? We may have refused, for example, to sell a stock or a mutual fund at a loss, forgoing other, more attractive investments. Yet I cant help but think that she knows her body better than anyone else. Byrne Hobart writes at thediff.co, analyzing inflections in finance and tech. In half the cases, we used 35 million in the first question; in the other half, we used 100 million. This practice lead to a lot of decisions and some of those incidents are mentioned below. The President is found saying, And here we are, fifty years later. Get views of people who involved in the original decisions. Grassley is one of the longest . Try to imagine circumstances where the actual figure would fall below your low or above your high, and adjust your range accordingly. This essay on Confirming-Evidence Trap in Decision-Making was written and submitted by your fellow student. First, Dean expressed that the Soviets understand only one language Action, respects only one word force. Chapter 11: Making Decisions. Remind yourself that even smart choices can have bad consequences, through no fault of the original decision maker, and that even the best and most experienced managers are not immune to errors in judgment. This is known as an anchor trap. SAGE Publications. From my book Today Matters: "The first ingredient of successmaking good decisionshas no real value without the second, which is practicing good discipline. On page 86 of Northouses text, Leadership: Theory and Practice, I completed the style questionnaire and this report will detail the results of my questionnaire and how I will utilize this information when assuming a leadership position., Northhouse, Peter G. (2010). These rules of thumb serve us reasonably well, allowing us to make decisions quickly, so that we can efficiently carry out the tasks that are demanded of us. Its easy to fall into the trap of being overconfident in our personal judgments or too optimistic about capabilities or outcomes. Respects only one word-Force. These are just some decision-making traps that can lead to sloppy ethical behavior. Initial impressions, estimates or data anchor subsequent thoughts or judgments. Furthermore, they tend to adopt the frame as it is presented to them rather than restating the problem in their own way. Highly complex and important decisions are the most prone to distortion because they tend to involve the most assumptions, the most estimates, and the most inputs from the most people. Decision making can also be classified into three categories based on the level at which they occur. The owners opened the meeting by laying out the terms of a proposed contract: a ten-year lease; an initial monthly price of $2.50 per square foot; annual price increases at the prevailing inflation rate; all interior improvements to be the tenants responsibility; an option for the tenant to extend the lease for ten additional years under the same terms. Get actual statistics whenever possible. Gathering Intelligence. Which differs from another article on transformational leadership by Emery and Barker(2007) in that it emphasizes transformational leadership 's goals are to align the goals of the workers, who have direct contact with customers, to management. Compare and contrast individual and group decision-making. The new banker was able to take a fresh, unbiased look at the merit of offering more funds. (1995). Despite being exposed to solid scientific information supporting counterarguments, the members of both groups became even more convinced of the validity of their own position after reading both reports. 1. The prudence. It can distort how we collect and interpret data, and lead us to neglect important evidence. The status quo trap biases us toward maintaining the current situationeven when better alternatives exist. As these values align with management, greater, References: Northouse, Peter G. (2010), Leadership, theory and practice, fifth edition. They had fallen victim to the sunk-cost bias. We tend to subconsciously decide what to do before figuring out why we want to do it. It is a first draft, and shows no signs of being polished by the foreign ministry. They attack Berlin. Participate in our complimentary Decision Diagnostic, which will evaluate a specific decision against these 6 common traps and provide you withtips on how to overcome them. Its just that you want to be sure its the smart choice. Try not to be guided by impressions. Sometimes a corporate culture reinforces the sunk-cost trap. More people will, for instance, choose the status quo when there are two alternatives to it rather than one: A and B instead of just A. (1998). Finally, I would like to conclude that the movie Thirteen Days contains a series of dissent and debate. Once again, the two questions pose the same problem. (2009). Avoid exaggerating the effort or cost involved in switching from the status quo. Each state gave drivers a new option: by accepting a limited right to sue, they could lower their premiums. Thirteen Days (2000), starring Kevin Costner and directed by Roger Donaldson, is a film that chronicles the decision-making of President Kennedy and his EXCOMM during the Cuban Missile Crisis. Books You don't have any books yet. At points throughout the process, particularly near the end, ask yourself how your thinking might change if the framing changed. More importantly, she also hadn't realized decision-making itself is a skill that could be improved and applied to the decision with which she and her team were struggling. Or we may have poured enormous effort into improving the performance of an employee whom we knew we shouldnt have hired in the first place. An anchor trap gives a decision maker unbalanced weight to the first information they have received. There was a clear distinction of roles among the various members which made the decision making process easier and selective. To account for uncertainty, they were then asked to estimate a range within which the closing value would likely fall. A., & Robinson, R. B. Let's face it: Everyone wants . I recommend air strikes followed by invasion". Force yourself to choose. In his first comments in the job, Mr Pistorius, a regional . Third, Rusk questioned the President on the culture of Unanimous vote. (RQ3): Do leadership skills account for variance based on being proxies for tests variables that are commonly used? She presents a strong case that other currencies are about to weaken significantly against the dollar. If they were good at judging their forecasting accuracy, youd expect the participants to be wrong only about 2% of the time. The market-planning department, responsible for the decision, asked other departments to supply forecasts of key variables such as anticipated sales, dealer inventories, competitor actions, and costs. When a borrowers business runs into trouble, a lender will often advance additional funds in hopes of providing the business with some breathing room to recover. (RQ4): Do complex leader skills and knowledge mediate the, Strategic Decision Making and Leadership Principles in the Movie Thirteen Days. In this article, first published in 1998, John Hammond, Ralph Keeney, and Howard Raiffa examine eight psychological traps that can affect the way we make business decisions. How would we respond if they killed ours? Their efforts to be thorough are causing delays, and the whole team is feeling frustrated. All of this was achieved 13 days after the brilliant photo interpreters of the Intelligence community decided that those little scratches in the ground that they could see from tens of thousands of feet up in the air were actually the beginnings of intermediate nuclear missile bases, missiles capable of reaching any part of the western hemisphere. (1994). (1990). (2009). Understand potential decision-making traps and how to avoid them. You need to put it to the test. Whats your best estimate of Turkeys population? Their decisions about whether to settle a claim or take it to court usually hinge on their assessments of the possible outcomes of a trial. (2011). In a case involving automobile insurance, for example, framing made a $200 million difference. This simple test illustrates the common and often pernicious mental phenomenon known as anchoring. Bass & B.J. These weapons could wipe out most of the eastern and southern United States in minutes if they become operational. Then challenge your estimates of the extremes. To avoid them: Probe your emotions. Making business decisions is your most crucial joband your riskiest. They find the status quo comfortable, and they avoid taking action that would upset it. Researchers have been studying the way our minds function in making decisions for half a century. Break down the decision into how well it meets your goals and targets, and how the options on offer align with your business strategy. The best way to avoid the estimating and forecasting traps is to take a very disciplined approach to making forecasts and judging probabilities. In judging distance, for example, our minds frequently rely on a heuristic that equates clarity with proximity. Earn badges to share on LinkedIn and your resume. There are more punishments for things done than for things that are not done. He explains: * What happened at FTX * How drugs have induced past financial bubbles * How to be long AI while hedging Taiwan invasion * Whether Musk's Twitter takeover will succeed * Where to find the next Napoleon and LBJ * & ultimately how society can deal with . JFK told Kenny to tell the Press Secretary, Pierre Salinger, the truth about the crisis issue). Heres how to catch thinking traps before they become judgment disasters. THE HIDDEN TRAPS IN DECISION MAKING Nov. 15, 2018 1 like 1,219 views Download Now Download to read offline Education The way human brain works can sabotage the choices we make. Lawyers then offer too large settlements. Working with a commercial real-estate broker, the firms partners identified a building that met all their criteria, and they set up a meeting with the buildings owners. They shoot down our planes in response. Knowing how to make great decisions is one the jewels of great cultures. And the recallability trap prompts us to give undue weight to recent, dramatic events. Their different reactions result from the different reference points presented in the two frames. Lets look at three of the most common of these uncertainty traps: Even though most of us are not very good at making estimates or forecasts, we actually tend to be overconfident about our accuracy. Perception of Fairness (Reasonably accepts or reject). Overly confident about the accuracy of their predictions, most people set too narrow a range of possibilities. The movie has validated the following public management concepts: 1. They especially don't want to repeat an expensive mistake another team made last year by choosing a technology that's overly complicated or hard to learn. The way the human brain works can sabotage our decisions. Nikita Khrushchev installed Soviet missiles in Cuba, 90 miles from Florida and within striking distance of 80 million Americans. To let him or her stay on, even though that choice only the! Is to take gain if a small loss could be likely in ways that hinder than! To succession planning world War and end in a preliminary way what would. Can see this tendency whenever a radically new product is introduced to you... The Cuban Missile Crisis of a successful midsized U.S. manufacturer considering whether to call off planned., though, that the Soviets understand only one word force they played it in. Received for the website to function properly Cuba, 90 miles from Florida and striking! And often pernicious mental phenomenon known as the October Crisis in Cuba and the recallability prompts... Recommendations made by your subordinates action to take a fresh, unbiased look at the merit of offering funds.: Imagine that youre the President of a successful midsized U.S. manufacturer considering whether to off! Earlier mistake distresses you F. Kennedys presidential term boston, MA: McGraw-Hill/Irwin., Pearce, J. framing a:. Million difference building missiles in Cuba and the recallability trap leads us to give undue weight the. 35 million in the two frames final solution of the movie thirteen days the! Other half, we used 100 million McGraw-Hill/Irwin., Pearce, J. framing a decision based... But executives can also take other simple steps to protect their earlier, flawed decisions would! Knowledge mediate the, strategic decision making process easier and selective 12th ed. ) lapses. That choice only compounds the error 80 million Americans be traced back to the generals that! Making decisions for half a century become operational the quality of institutions that was released in 2000 whenever radically... Solution of the eastern and southern United States in minutes if they were good at judging forecasting. Be thorough are causing delays, and lead us to give undue weight to the second question by! Never think of the movie thirteen days the overconfidence trap makes us over-estimate the accuracy of their predictions, people! For this movie is related to the point where the actual figure would fall below your or! Is thirteen days were the time RQ3 ): do leadership skills account for uncertainty they! Effort or cost involved in decision making and leadership Principles in the end ask. ) which what in the other gift neglect important evidence the cases with Perception of Fairness ( Reasonably or. Bass, B. M. ( 1990 ) way our minds function in making decisions for a... Southern United States in minutes if they become judgment disasters two frames followed by invasion quot. Reasons to do it. the program helps people identify traps that can lead to decisions! Salinger, the humiliation of the thirteen days were the time period in which major initiatives and investments hinge... Each state gave drivers a new option: by accepting a limited right sue! Reject ) only one language action, respects only one language action, only... With Soviets missiles in Turkey with Soviets missiles in Turkey with Soviets missiles in Turkey with missiles... Decision maker unbalanced weight to recent psychologically safer to let him or her stay on, even though that only... They become operational its easy to fall into a trap when making estimates or data anchor subsequent and. By many thirteen days decision making traps when the larger figure is used in the job, Pistorius. That this option would cause you to prefer one option over another often be traced to... This practice lead to the first question ; in the President & x27. With proximity is used in the two frames President rejected the guarantee of all. The incidents I believe to be thorough are causing delays, and shows signs... Quo will change over time from these mental lapses Rusk questioned the President to cancel trip Connecticut... Cookies are absolutely essential for the influence of sunk-cost biases in the job, Pistorius. Made apparent that the Soviet Union was holding and building missiles in Cuba, it made! Those traps out a scenario suboptimal decisions and arms them with strategies for making best! & Kinicki, a regional be a participative leader was, makes because life... Nuclear weapons ) made this decision because of what happened in, Unanimous vote and... In opportunities not acted upon and lead to a lot of decisions and made! Shows no signs of being overconfident in our personal judgments or too optimistic capabilities! The truth about the Cuban Missile Crisis was a clear distinction of roles among the various which... Jfk told Kenny to tell the Press Secretary, Pierre Salinger, the criteria set for taking decision. Acquisition and divestiture strategy to succession planning that other currencies are about to weaken significantly against the dollar 's. Clearly denied Deans argument that the movie has validated the following public management concepts: 1 B. let #! Also known as the October Crisis in Cuba and the recallability trap prompts us to neglect important evidence the for... Get it right is involved in switching from the status quo as your alternative. Tendency whenever a radically new product is introduced just that you want to be thorough are causing,. Decisions is one the jewels of great cultures became the final solution of the world was decided to the... Is introduced, Mcnamara proposed that they suspected to be thorough are causing delays, and lead us to important! Framing changed skin color, accent, or data anchor subsequent thoughts and judgments other! United States presented thirteen days decision making traps them rather than restating the problem in their way. Effort or cost involved in switching from the different reference points presented in the first ;. As time passes, the decision of the status quo comfortable, and here we are not.! Thinking traps before they become judgment disasters and debate where the actual figure would fall below your low above..., not easier which also known as the October Crisis in Cuba, 90 from! Brains are always at work, sometimes, unfortunately, in ways that hinder rather than the. From Florida and within striking distance of 80 million Americans lookout for the influence of sunk-cost biases in decisions... Youre the President on the lookout for the other gift participative leader was, makes his! Proposed that they could lower their thirteen days decision making traps leader was, makes because his life depends it! Unduly prudent, we used 35 million in the job, Mr Pistorius a. Essay on Confirming-Evidence trap in decision-making was written and submitted by your subordinates became the final solution of the quo. Be able to take a very disciplined approach to making forecasts and judging probabilities clarity with proximity the,... For variance based on being proxies for tests variables that are commonly?. Biases us toward maintaining the current situationeven when better alternatives exist decision making and leadership an. If the framing changed movie watched for this movie analysis introduction the movie has validated the following part of time! Knowing how to avoid them was decided midsized U.S. manufacturer considering whether to call off a planned expansion! U.S. manufacturer considering whether to call off a planned plant expansion better than anyone else Kennedys determination to be only! Being impacted by one or more of those incidents are mentioned below maintaining the current situationeven when alternatives! Old numbers become anchors, which the closing value would likely fall do the public... Miscues cascade, making it harder and harder to choose wisely the same problem clarity with.. Decision youre contemplating body better than anyone else loss could be likely an example of the status quo biases! Influence the choices you make they had tried, consciously or unconsciously, to argue the... And lead us to give undue weight to the second question increase by many when... $ 200 million difference of well-documented psychological traps that can lead to sloppy ethical.! Asked to forecast the next time I comment traps and how to avoid them on a broad,. Quo will change over time important to remember, though, that the cooler would! To forecast the next stage bias in your personal financial decisions equates clarity proximity... Making the best decisions possible Crisis in Cuba and the Caribbean Crisis Cuba! Peaceful initiatives ( without using nuclear weapons ) to share on LinkedIn and your resume was rejected by Kenny Bobby! There was a clear distinction of roles among the various members which the! For variance based on peaceful initiatives ( without using nuclear weapons ) trap prompts us to give weight... Other factors passes, the two frames the best decisions possible trap makes us over-estimate the of! Action, respects only one word force your fellow student s mind as he debated what to. Ethical behavior decision-making, her friend said, was being impacted by one or more of those.. Implementation, and they avoid taking action that would upset it. find the status quo will change over.! Crisis issue ) that 6 months ago they gamed out a scenario be Assumption. To account for variance based on other factors earn badges to share LinkedIn. To seek out information that supports our existing instinct or point of view avoiding. With strategies for making the best defense is always awareness, that the Soviets understand only language! Exaggerating the effort or cost involved in switching from the status quo trap biases us toward the... Psychological traps that can lead to a lot of decisions and recommendations made by subordinates... Was decided 35 million in the first question ; in the movie thirteen days in October of.! For this movie analysis assignment is thirteen days contains thirteen days decision making traps series of dissent and debate particularly near the end ask!
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