Legal Statement. Trafalgar Group chief pollster Robert Cahaly, who made headlines in 2016 for being one of the few pollsters to predict Donald Trump's victory, has said the sitting president is on track to win . On today's special show, we are joined by the man of the hour, Robert Cahaly of Trafalgar Group. Cahaly is often quoted in national and global publications and on cable news shows such as FOXNews, CNN, and Newsmax. The Trafalgar Group. But can you tell me that the University of New Hampshire, with their record in New Hampshire, doesnt know what theyre doing? Tim Walz. He graduated from there receiving a B.A. " *Sorry, there was a problem signing you up. Trafalgar Group founder Robert Cahaly told Newsweek during an interview last week that Democrats are excited to participate following President-elect Joe Biden's win in November. Cahaly stood firm saying, On Wednesday Im either going to be the guy who got it right, or nobody is going to listen to me anymore. Breitbart 11/7/16. He failed to cite any. She did not. Sept. 17, Gramercy Theatre, New York Robert Cahaly is a surveyor who claims the Trafalgar Gathering which is an assessment surveying and study organization. At least 40 Ukrainian civilians died in the Russian missile strike Saturday, and dozens are still missing. Trafalgar Group senior strategist Robert Cahaly breaks down his prediction for Republican turnout in the upcoming midterm elections on 'Unfiltered with Dan Bongino.' Senior strategist at the. This ought to be a lesson. Our own polls show that that's wildly wrong. You cant. All rights reserved. But some of his projections heading into Tuesday night were downright baffling. Copyright 2020 Millions of Celebs. luckbox magazine and tastytrade are not in the business of transacting securities trades, nor does it direct client commodity accounts or give commodity trading advice tailored to any particular clients situation or investment objectives. Robert Cahaly is an American pollster and founder of the Trafalgar Group. This email will be used to sign into all New York sites. He was previously a political consultant for Republican Party candidates. A conversation with macroeconomic analyst Jon Turek. On Sunday, November 6th, 2016, two days before the presidential election, Robert Cahaly, Senior Strategist and Pollster of Atlanta-based Trafalgar Group, bet the future of his company on his teams unorthodox polling methodologywhen national reporters asked if he would stand by his polling results showing a clear 300+ Trump victory, effectively rejecting the industry consensus of a large significant Hillary Clinton electoral win, he didnt back down, hedge his bets, or equivocate. Trump is facing charges because he defied the law. 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He drew attention in the aftermath of the election, in which Trafalgar had been one of the only polling firms to predict Donald Trump's victory over Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election. in political science from the University of South Carolina in 1995. Twitters staff spent years trying to protect the platform against impulsive, ranting billionaires then one made himself the CEO. [14] After the charges were dropped, Cahaly filed suit against SLED officials, claiming his constitutional right to free speech had been violated. [4][5] Cahaly's prediction of a Trump victory proved to be wrong, with him (and Trafalgar) incorrectly predicting Trump victories in five battleground states won by Biden.[6]. AMAC Newsline interviewed Cahaly earlier this year to break down some of the trends seen in the 2020 election cycle, and we recently caught up with him again to get his perspective on how he sees the 2022 midterm race developing, as well as a few key races that are happening around the country this year. luckbox magazine and tastytrade are not licensed financial advisers, registered investment advisers, or registered broker-dealers. He has a Twitter account with a huge number of followers of 80.2k. Oct. 22, 2022. luckbox content is for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing contained in these articles constitute a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, promotion or offer by tastytrade, or any of its subsidiaries, affiliates or assigns. Join half a million readers enjoying Newsweek's free newsletters. THE LUCKBOX LONGSHOT: Three Coins in the Mountains. "What we saw in 2016 is kind of a 'shy' Republican vote," says Trafalgar Group Sr. In New Hampshire, Don Bolduc was supposed to win by 1 point. In the lead-up to the 2020 presidential election, Cahaly defied the polling consensus and. He drew attention in the aftermath of the election, in which Trafalgar had been one of the only polling firms to predict Donald Trump's victory over Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election. Quotes displayed in real-time or delayed by at least 15 minutes. As of late Thursday afternoon, the typically prolific Cahaly had not posted on Twitter since Election Day and, after serving as an election night analyst for the Daily Wire, he has not made any major media appearances. Also learn about how he is rich at the age of 49 years old? MEET ROBERT CAHALY Robert successfully predicted Trump's win in 2016 and after the 2020 election, FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver praised him as the nation's 2nd most accurate pollster. Tune in as Rebecca Weber taps . As leader of The Trafalgar Group, Cahaly oversees a group of allied companies. Already a tastytrader? Evers won by three. Robert Cahaly is one of the best pollsters in the business. But, there is no information regarding his estimated net worth as of now. Transaction costs (commissions and other fees) are important factors and should be considered when evaluating any securities transaction or trade. Cahaly predicts up to a five-point bump over current polls for the Republicans from "submerged voters" who are afraid to talk to pollsters after President Biden "said MAGA voters were a threat to. So, how much is Robert Cahaly networth at the age of years old? You're getting super-billionaire donors to dump millions and millions of dollars in negative ads against me to prop up your election because you gave them a fake poll. This isnt apples to apples. Please only use it for a guidance and Robert Cahaly's actual income may vary a lot from the dollar amount shown above. Democrats are too honest to do that. All Rights Reserved. Can Ron DeSantis Compete With Donald Trumps Sinister Charisma? The Florida governor is off to a good start in terms of 2024 buzz and hype. He lost handily. [2] Cahaly does not disclose Trafalgar's group's methods of polling or its process for ascertaining the volume of shy Trump voters in the electorate. The two halves of the sandwich. If you do this year in and year out and its always bad? Options, futures and futures options are not suitable for all investors. Details To Know About Virginia Governor Candidate, Keri Lewis Biography; Net Worth, Age And Wife. Starting as a young door-to-door campaign worker in the early 1980's, Robert Cahaly has been actively involved in elections for most of his life. You've successfully subscribed to this newsletter! He is a highly sought-after lecturer and public speaker on topics ranging from modern polling techniques, candidate training, campaign management and strategy, issue advocacy, and public relations. [16] Cahaly attributed this partially on the premise of "Shy Trump Voter Theory", which claims that poll respondents are afraid to reveal that they are voting for Trump due to a "social desirability bias. The other day somebody said, A lot of Republicans say that your polls helped motivate Republicans to turn out. I was like, I dont care. Thats not my goal. Do you know any young people who answer the phone and take 30 questions? Once again, Cahaly is going against the grain predicting Trump will do much better in swing states than most expect winning Michigan, Florida, Texas, Arizona, and North Carolina. Robert Carlyle OBE [1] [2] (born 14 April 1961) is a Scottish actor. 0. Cahaly calls the swing states, two key Senate toss-ups and some Luckbox Longshot trades for less than a dime. It helps to already be famous to become a social media influencer, but he demonstrates that you need to have a raw or personal touch and engage with your followers if you want to do well on Instagram Facebook, Twiter, Youtube, etc. One Trafalgar Group poll showed New York's Democratic Attorney General Letitia Jamesa key political opponent of Trumpdown by just a single point to Republican candidate Michael Henry. Robert Cahaly, Trafalgar Group chief pollster, discusses important races to watch in the upcoming midterm elections; Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Florida) discusses the aftermath of destruction from Hurricane Ian; Plot summary Add synopsis Genre Talk-Show Parents guide Add content advisory Details Release date October 9, 2022 (United States) also know about his Social media accounts i.e. In fact, there is no identification of his parents name or he has any siblings or not.As of prediction of presidential election 2020, Robert Cahaly states that Trump is likely to be re-elected as president for his second tenure.As of now, we are yet to confirm Cahalys married life. All rights reserved. You cant. - Cahaly, whose . Robert Cahaly, founder of the polling firm The Trafalgar Group, said during an interview on SiriusXM's Breitbart News Saturday that pollsters in recent years have been unsuccessful because they have attempted to "affect the electorate" rather than "reflect . Nov 8, 2022 Tonight I'm appearing exclusively on @trafalgar_group partner @realDailyWire election night @dailywireplus coverage. Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment. Regarding Cahalys educational background, he attended the University of South Carolina. Bidens Document Blunder Is Nothing Like Trumps Crime. You mentioned last time you want to be right more than anything else.Yeah. Dont miss Trafalgar Group senior strategist and pollster, Robert Cahaly on Huckabee. Cahaly founded Trafalgar Group in 2016. luckbox magazine and tastytrade believe that the information contained in luckbox magazine is reliable and makes efforts to assure accuracy, but the publisher disclaims responsibility for opinions and representation of facts contained herein. Nov 4, 2022 Robert Cahaly, Chief Pollster at the Trafalgar group joined the Guy Benson Show to give his polling predictions and analysts heading into the election day. So how do youI would say its less our methodology and more our turnout model. Avalon Hollywood & Bardot in Los Angeles, CA, Trading the Space Exploration Sector: Where No Investor Has Gone Before. Robert Cahaly is an American pollster and founder of the Trafalgar Group. Cahaly explained the results and methodology of the poll, which put Republican candidate Scott Jensen just 3 percentage points behind Gov. Don Gummer Bio, Age, Art, Education, Net Worth, Wife, Children, Meryl Streep and Sculptures ZIO Wiki, Where Is Tommy Steele Today? In New Mexico, Republican Mark Ronchetti was anticipated to score a 1-point upset of Democratic Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham. And also, his average earning as a pollster is yet to be disclosed. Robert Cahaly, a senior strategist and pollster at the Trafalgar Group, spoke with the Daily Caller's Samantha Renck about why he thinks the polls were so wrong this election, improvements for the future and more. Robert Cahaly of The Trafalgar Group had predicted a Republican victory in 2016 after finding that Trump was leading in the key battleground states of Michigan and Pennsylvania. Born on in United States, Robert Cahaly started his career as pollster and political consultant . Brian Baldinger Bio Age Height Family Wife NFL and Net Worth. 1 seed said he was mentally destroyed after an injury-plagued second-round loss at the Australian Open. - Growing up in South Carolina, he worked for and with GOP legends like Lee Atwater, Carroll Campbell, and Strom Thurmond. So our methodology will not change, and well adjust our turnout model. The subsequent decision of Cahaly v. LaRosa found the anti-robocall statute was a content-based restriction on speech and therefore unconstitutional, which defended the right of Cahaly to make robocalls. Real Clear Politics said, Pollster Who Got it Right in 2016 Does it Again,after Cahaly and his Trafalgar team were the the pollsters who called the most close races correctly. This obviously is not an exact science, all this stuff. Trafalgar Group poll called Ossoff-Perdue a dead heat. Fortune, Jan 9, 2021, One of the most impressive pollsters in the countryand one of the few who predicted President Trump would win in 2016. Lou Dobbs, Jan 6, 2021, 2016-2022 All rights reserved. Cahalys portfolio spans three decades and 22 states with success at all levels of politics and public relations. Powered and implemented by FactSet Digital Solutions. In 2017, The Trafalgar Group and Cahaly were alone in correctly calling the following major races: Georgia US House 6 special election, Alabama US Senate special election primary and runoff as well as the the Virginia Governors race. There is no information regarding his wife on the internet. Cahaly was born in Georgia and grew up in Pendleton, South Carolina, and received a Bachelor of Arts degree in political science from the University of South Carolina in 1995. in political science degree in 1995.An Atlanta, Georgi based opinion polling and survey company, Trafalgar Group was founded by Robert Cahaly.Moving on to his family, there is no information regarding his parents as well as siblings. GOP consultant Robert Cahaly, who received a text that his flight home was canceled while at a San Francisco 49ers game, said that it was the kind of frustrating experience that voters remember . You can watch it live at dailywire.com Live: The Daily Wire Election Night 2022 Tune in at 4PM ET for all the election news you need to know. It's unclear what went wrong. Not even close. I said long questionnaires, however, do not represent average voters. Privacy Policy and 2023 FOX News Network, LLC. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed. You have your methodology, to collect and process your samples, and then you have the turnout, your model of whos going to vote. Some examples were obvious. Cahaly claimed that Trafalgar's polling methodology was more accurate than other polls because it utilized methods to increase the weighting of supposed "shy, pro-Trump" voters, which he argued to be underrepresented in most polls. And they are. His film work includes Trainspotting (1996), The Full Monty (1997), The World Is Not Enough (1999), Angela's Ashes (1999), The Beach (2000), 28 Weeks Later (2007), and Yesterday (2019). Turns out he was super-duper wrong. You may wonder how rich is pollster Cahaly? Wiki, Biography, Age, Family, NetWorth & Know More. Trafalgar Group senior strategist Robert Cahaly breaks down his prediction for Republican turnout in the upcoming midterm elections on 'Unfiltered with Dan Bongino. Starting as a child, he volunteered on various political campaigns, before eventually founding his own political consulting firm in 1997. Now, Trafalgar's CEO Robert Cahaly is on the New Hampshire Journal podcast to talk about his new poll of Granite S TRENDS: The Polls are WrongHeres Why, There IS a Shy Trump Voter, Correcting for Social Desirability Bias, & Nate Silver and the $10,000 Challenge. After a decade of punking liberals with hidden-camera stings, James OKeefe becomes the story. Death Toll Keeps Rising After Russian Attack on Dnipro Apartment Building. This year, our fear is that people are not going to be polled that are Trump supporters because all that Biden has said, and all the apparent attacks, and people coming after them and they're just hesitant even to participate. Later on, he moved to Pendleton, South Carolina where he grew up. North Carolina, Missouri, and even the race for governor in Nevada those were all relatively close. Robert Cahaly, better known by her family name Robert Cahaly, is a popular American pollster and political consultant. Trafalgar had the most accurate polls in WI Pres (exact), FL Pres (1.2% off), NC Pres (.6% off), NC Sen (exact), AZ Sen (.4% off), TX Pres (.2% off), OH Pres, MO Pres, LA Pres (.6% off), & LA Sen. But what needs to happen is when something isnt right, you have to figure out what part isnt right and say how to fix it. pic.twitter.com/BZBVIIh0Gn. Okay, but the Times final polls of Pennsylvania and Arizona and Georgia were almost exactly correct. The description I gave every media outlet is I thought that vote could be between half a point and five points. Republicans will pick up as many as 35 House seats and win control of the Senate with at least 52 seats in the midterm elections, chief pollster Robert Cahaly of the Trafalgar Group said during. Of Course Ivana Left Donald Trump Out of Her Will. The Washington Examiner says, Cahalys Trafalgar Group has earned a reputation for accuracy the last three cycle., While most polls proved just as inaccurate as they were in 2016, one polling agency stood out among the pack: The Trafalgar Group. Daily Wire, Nov 5 2020 ,Title: Pro-Trump Pollster Called Crazy Turns Out To Be Most Accurate Of All. Robert Cahaly: What we are seeing He's also called races correctly, or at least captured a trend. Wanna follow Robert Cahaly's net worth? Starting as a child, he volunteered on various political campaigns, before eventually founding his own political consulting firm in 1997. Discover Robert Cahalys Biography, Age, Height, Physical Stats, Dating/Affairs, Family and career updates. But, there is no information regarding his estimated net worth as of now. in political science degree in 1995. Sure, but thats a presidential election.But 2018 will likely be no comparison to this one. They also spotted the GOP's surprisingly strong performance in 2020. Pollster And Political Consultant Darryl Hinton But we should still savor this fun, low-stakes debate. In 2022, the companys polls once again showed a picture of Republican strength, helping create a widespread impression that a red wave was about to crest. Perfect example look at New Hampshire. his net worth has been growing significantly in 2021-2022. Cahaly is of Syrian heritage and an Eastern Orthodox Christian. The Speaker has forgiven the violent remarks of Paul Gosar and Marjorie Taylor Greene. As of now, we are yet to confirm Cahalys married life. In 2016, conservative pollster Robert Cahaly and his newly created firm, the Trafalgar Group, became overnight sensations as one of the only polling firms to predict Donald Trump's victory over Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election. Will you be upfront about how youre going to change your model based on the results of this election?Well, again, were talking about two different things. (RACE TIGHTENS, etc.) Some candidates deemed vulnerable, like Hochul, sought to downplay the numbers, specifically calling out outfits like Trafalgar as simply producing numbers Republicans wanted to see, and skewing the narrative of Democrats' vulnerability. [3], Leading up to the 2020 presidential election, Cahaly garnered substantial media attention for his assertions that Trump would prevail over Joe Biden in the 2020 election, a claim that contradicted the polling consensus. Eric Adamss Plan to Commit the Homeless Has Little Meaning in the ER. The weakness was our turnout model. What I said was people who answer those polls who are Gen Z and millennials arent representative of average voters. It's not the first time Cahaly has called races wrong. In 2020 Cahaly and Trafalgar out performed the competition again. Later on, he moved to Pendleton, South Carolina where he grew up. Together with his team he works with federal, state, and local candidates as well as business and industry groups. And theres a difference. [15], Cahaly gained media attention in 2016 for being one of the few pollsters to accurately predict that Donald Trump would carry the states of Michigan and Pennsylvania in the 2016 United States presidential election. Donations to Trinity Broadcasting Network are Tax Deductible to the extent permitted by law. Those polls are more vulnerable to whats called the social-desirability bias. This interview has been edited for length and clarity. Expert pollster Robert Cahaly founder of the Trafalgar group shares the loophole to midterm predictions. Photo: The Trafalgar Group. This led to "hidden voters" that "most" polling under counted, therefore Trump support in key battleground states exceeded expectations 21 274 1,624 Robert C. Cahaly Robert Cahaly On Republican Surge In The Polls Ahead Of The Midterms | Guy Benson Robert Cahaly On Republican Surge In The Polls Ahead Of The Midterms Oct 28, 2022 Robert Cahaly, Chief. Whoops! Mutual Fund and ETF data provided by Refinitiv Lipper. Robert Cahaly is a pollster who owns the Trafalgar Group which is an opinion polling and survey company. After losing a New Mexico state house race in the midterms, police say Solomon Pea became the mastermind in the high-profile shootings. This week Cahaly struck again - correctly predicting "Republican" Karen Handel's come-from-behind victory over Democrat Jon Ossoff in the race for Georgia's sixth congressional district . [1], Cahaly founded Trafalgar Group in 2016. In 2021 Cahaly and Trafalgar are off to a strong start, having had the accurate GA Sen Runoff Poll & second most accurate GA Sen Special Runoff Poll. Wednesday, 4 November 2020 Robert Cahaly: how we got the polls right The Trafalgar Group pollster spoke to Freddie Sayers on the campaign Whatever the final result, one thing is clear about this election: the pollsters were way off. We had two things happen. For now, he'll stay focused on calling two more 2020 races. Things you buy through our links may earn New York a commission. Cahaly accurately predicted a close gubernatorial race in the deep blue stronghold of New York, a race Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul won by 6 points, and he was shockingly close to the final results in statewide races in Wisconsin, Missouri, North Carolina and Georgia. Do you still stand by that thesis?Yeah, I still think those voters were there. This is the new reality of midterms theres high turnout, ever since Trump.But even 2018 was no comparison to 2020. This video is playing in picture-in-picture. The GOP Is More Dependent Than Ever on Democratic Dysfunction. The Trafalgar Group's polling numbers were mostly inaccurate of in the 2022 United States midterm elections. The White House said there are no visitor logs for Bidens Delaware residence, where six pages of classified documents were found. Robert Cahaly. Watch the live stream of Fox News and full episodes. There is no information regarding his wife on the internet. Fast forward six years, however, and Cahaly has emerged as one of this election cycle's most inaccurate forecasters following a series of incorrect forecasts of several battleground states in the 2022 midterms that were out of step with most mainstream pollsters. Hes still solid at 45, but Monday nights debacle in Dallas was hard to watch and a sign of things to come. Vance, who eventually won the race by six points. You had Washington senator Patty Murray up by one, and she ended up winning by 15. Lujan Grisham. He is also regarded as a specialist of issue advocacy and independent expenditure campaigns. with lot of social media fan he often posts many personal photos and videos to interact with her huge fan base social media plateform. But it seemed like turnout was good generally, right? In fact, there is no identification of his parents name or he has any siblings or not. The Gas-Stove Ban Freak-out Is the Story We Need Right Now. He has gained media attention in 2016 for predicting correctly that President Donald Trump would win in the states of Michigan and Pennsylvania. Can you tell me that Saint Anselms College doesnt know what theyre doing? November 4th, 2022 Mike Bayham. Our own polls show that that's wildly wrong," Hochul said on MSNBC the week before Election Day. As the Republican base has grown more blue-collar, the partys agenda has remained plutocratic. And it was just simply outdone by a great get out the vote. Facebook Twitter. 770-542-8170 | Data Privacy Policy, cable news shows such as FOXNews, CNN, and Newsmax, Pollster Who Got it Right in 2016 Does it Again,, the folks at Trafalgar had a great year, Winners and losers from 2020s election article, National Survey GOP Effectiveness and Future. She ended up winning by more than 6 points. Republican turnout for the midterms will be underestimated: Robert Cahaly. Here we are updating just estimated networth of Robert Cahaly salary, income and assets. Robert C. Cahaly is an American pollster and founder of the Trafalgar Group. "[19], In September 2022, Cahaly, in an interview with Split Ticket, acknowledged methodological changes from his polling of the 2020 United States elections.[20]. We also spoke last time about how youve gotten some flak for transparency. Robert Cahaly is a pollster who owns the Trafalgar Group which is an opinion polling and survey company. Trafalgar Group pollster Robert Cahaly joins 'Sunday Morning Futures' to assess the possible outcomes for key races in the midterm elections and how Republicans could perform. But his retail skills against a master like Trump are unproven. Your model didnt see that coming. Do Not Sell or Share My Personal Information. During the discussion Cahaly said the late breakers are going Trump. Cahaly has particular experience and expertise in strategy, polling, and data analytics. He holds an American nationality. You mentioned Democrats get-out-the-vote operation. he is one of famous pollster and political consultant with the age years old group. You can argue that Insider Advantage doesnt know what theyre doing. Robert Cahaly is a pollster who owns the Trafalgar Group which is an opinion polling and survey company. They were called wackos and way out there, yet they were the closest. The Hill magazine named The Trafalgar Group as Winner on Winners and losers from 2020s election article. "GOP consultant arrested for illegal "robocalls" Nov. 2, 2010, Ed Kilgore, "Theres Still No Evidence Trump Voters Are Particularly Shy", "Four Problems With 2016 Trump Polling That Could Play Out Again in 2020,", Last edited on 23 December 2022, at 05:42, "The One Pollster in America Who is Sure Trump is Going to Win", "The One Pollster in America Who Is Sure Trump Is Going to Win", "Trafalgar's Missed a Lot in 2018 and 2020", "It's important to ask why 2020 polls were off. Cahaly gave his this. Powered and implemented by FactSet Digital Solutions. ", Hochul: All we have to do is see the name trafalgar. The only firm to a difference of under 2% while most firms were over 3% and 538 was at over 4%. It seems like something where you need to keep adjusting all the time.Thats not the weakness, though. However, as Cahaly has risen in the public discourse, so too have the criticisms from his peers. One polla survey of the Ohio Senate racepredicted a double-digit win for Republican J.D. But this is the same thing that Democrats did in 2018, and it was very successful. Although Robert Cahaly, the Atlanta-based firm's founder and chief strategist . And thats all I said. We are apparently today's target." Are you just letting the dust settle?Yeah, I want to wait for the last election to be settled. tweeted Matt McDermott, a Democratic strategist, on election night. That is what I said. If youll notice, we dont usually even respond to what most people say. Trafalgar had the lowest average difference between projected election margin and the actual margin. We had a lack of other polling this fall Im sure youve noticed that the big networks didnt do anything in the last couple of weeks, which is surprising. Yes, the generic ballot was more accurate. Our polls in Ohio werent very far off. Robert C. Cahaly is an American pollster and founder of the Trafalgar Group. One year after a saga that ended in his deportation, hes no longer persona non grata Down Under. Robert Cahaly is an American pollster and founder of the Trafalgar Group. What I care about is whether I was right, and I care about how to fix it. Believe me, theyve had a few. Robert Cahaly, better known by her family name Robert Cahaly, is a popular American pollster and political consultant. Republican turnout will exceed even what we predict. I can see thinking youd want to do something else. Robert Cahaly. But you're making money off of it.. because you gave them a fake poll.. All I need is Democrats turning out pic.twitter.com/U4ks2GBl5H. And thats just logic. A 1995 graduate of the University of South Carolina, Cahaly . Market data provided by Factset. The -born pollster and political consultant expert is arguably the worlds most influential Robert Cahaly is expert, with a wide-ranging social media outreach.
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