May & June - This is the beginning of the rains. 1). Nature 401:360363, Segele ZT, Lamb PJ (2005) Characterization and variability of Kiremt rainy season over Ethiopia. The approach that we followed and the results of our model evaluation at the subnational level will contribute to studies of AOGCM errors, finally, improving their ability, and so lead to improved weather and climate forecasts elsewhere. The representation of these teleconnections in the HadGEM2 and HadGEM3-GA3.0 coupled climate models shows mixed skill. We found that both the HadGEM2 and HadGEM3-GA3.0 models are capable of simulating the first-order shape of the Ethiopian climatological annual rainfall cycles and the spatial patterns of seasonal rainfall, but with varying errors in representing the rainfall amount. J Geophys Res 98:219235. Here, we used the correlations between the five SST indices and gridded rainfall (Fig. PDF Public Policy Responses for a Climate Resilient Green Malaria has been Ethiopia's predominant communicable disease for decades. Low Temp: 48 F. 0000017119 00000 n
This page presents Ethiopia's climate context for the current climatology, 1991-2020, derived from observed, historical data. Hot dry tropical (kola) is the zone of desert which includes the following climatic and vegetation characteristics: average temperature of 18-20C and annual rainfall of 300 mm- 900mm, thorn shrub vegetation, flora includes acacia; myrtle and zizygium; euphorbia, crops include Sorghum; maize; cotton; tobacco; dura, and sugar cane [22]. Generally, the best time to visit Ethiopia is between November and February when clear, sunny days bring regular average temperatures of 25C (77F). doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016, Saji NH, Goswami BN, Vinayachandran PN et al (1999) A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean. Information should be used to build a strong understanding of current climate conditions in order to appreciate future climate scenarios and projected change. Precipitation in Ethiopia averaged 845.03 mm from 1901 until 2021, reaching an all time high of 1102.46 mm in 1967 and a record low of 641.32 mm in 1984. MAD and DPR were supported by U.K. Department for International Development (DFID)-Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Science Research Partnership (CSRP) program, Agreement Number: L0830. Poverty . (2008) report that SSTs over the equatorial east Pacific and Indian Oceans are used for operational forecasts by the National Meteorological Agency of Ethiopia. In this study, we used Budyko-like framework and remote sensing data to evaluate the spatial effects of climate and land surface changes on water availability in Ethiopia. Although the days are clear and sunny, be prepared for the fact that nighttime temperatures can dip as low as 40 degrees Fahrenheit (5 degrees Celsius). He also found HadGEM2 is amongst the better models, so we suggest it is likely that the HadGEM2 and HadGEM3-GA3.0 performance shown here in representing teleconnections to Ethiopia is probably no worse than many other models. color:#fff; This complex spatio-temporal variability of rainfall over Ethiopia is attributed to the large variations in altitude (Gamachu 1988), variations in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the Indian, Pacific and Atlantic Oceans (e.g. Thus, essential information can potentially be generated for decisions of national, regional, and local importance, such as water resource management, agriculture, transportation, and urban planning (Collins et al. Significant at many of the country time and weather in Ethiopia of variation, index! The disruption in the atmosphere impacts rainfall throughout the world. (2004) and Segele et al. Throughout the rest of the year, precipitation is minimal and the weather is generally pleasant. MRD 8:131138. Characterization of the evolutionary trend and formulation of coastal defense interventions within Natural reserve of Sentina (San Benedetto del Tronto (Marche Region, Italy). 2009a, b), and the interseasonal and interannual variation of the strength of the monsoon over the Arabian Peninsula (Segele and Lamb 2005; Segele et al. Dire Dawa is also more arid, with most of the rain falling during the short rainy season (March to April) and the long rainy season (July to September). A lot of us in the geoscience business are concerned these days with interpreting ongoing and past, and predicting future, responses of landforms, soils, and ecosystems to climate change. As shown in Sect. H|TMs8W(qvN;jOiJk(d %7>$4o
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A3$&+KQNpgK4?kBp!" Neither cool nor Warm. This causes moisture fluxes to most parts of Ethiopia from the Atlantic and Indian Oceans through westerly wind systems (Viste and Sorteberg 2013), and results in rainy conditions over most parts of Ethiopia except for drier condition over the southern and southeastern lowlands. These studies indicate not only how climatically complex Ethiopia is, but suggest that regional climate and rainfall patterns may be experiencing long term change. You'll also want to include a windproof, waterproof jacket, a good hat, and sunscreensunburn can occur year-round, especially at the higher elevations. 0000008184 00000 n
The findings of our study, therefore, support this view. Seasonal forecasting. The dynamics of global warming caused by ENSO could significantly create decreasing trends of rainfall and increasing trends of temperature in East Africa. doi:10.1002/joc.1751, Segele Z, Lamb PJ, Leslie LM (2009b) Seasonal-to-interannual variability of Ethiopia/Horn of Africa monsoon. However, only a few studies have been conducted to understand the complex association between SSTs and Ethiopian rainfall variability during the last few decades. The interaction between human population and agricultural production is complex.Intense debates have been continued on population growth against agricultural development. Weather in the Bahamas: Climate, Seasons, and Average Monthly Temperature, Weather in Egypt: Climate, Seasons, and Average Monthly Temperature, Weather in Costa Rica: Climate, Seasons, and Average Monthly Temperature, Weather in Iceland: Climate, Seasons, and Average Monthly Temperature, Weather in the Maldives: Climate, Seasons, and Average Monthly Temperature, Weather in Tanzania: Climate, Seasons, and Average Monthly Temperature, Weather in Kenya: Climate, Seasons, and Average Monthly Temperature, Weather in South Africa: Climate, Seasons, and Average Monthly Temperature, Weather in Africa: Climate, Seasons, and Average Monthly Temperature, Weather in Southeast Asia: Climate, Seasons, and Average Monthly Temperature, Weather in Argentina: Climate, Seasons, and Average Monthly Temperature, Get our travel tips Delivered to your inbox. Occurrence in geological formations and water quality are the main Krempt rains dominate the pattern 24 hours for riparian communities recent drought and, therefore, decreases, PET commonly increases as it is that! A few of these studies, such as Segele and Lamb (2005); Segele et al. We also thank Wilfran Moufouma-Okia for extracting the HadGEM2 and HadGEM3-GA3.0 data at Met Office and Erasmo Buonomo and Caroline Bain for assisting with R and GRADS software, respectively. For the S-Ethiopian ON rainfall season, the models show a mix of skills. Int J Climatol 33:19241935. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00027.1, Ummenhofer CC, Sen Gupta A, England MH (2009) Contribution of Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures to enhance east African rainfall. We see this as a case study that can later be extended to a larger ensemble of models. The Belg rainfall (MarchMay) is restricted to the east, southeast and southern parts of Ethiopia due to orography. Thus, the quality of CRU data is relatively better between the indicated years. This study examines the variability of observed and projected climate extremes and seasonal rainfall variability over Ethiopia. For these simulations, a spin-up period of 23years was removed from the start of the model data. Part I: associations of Wavelet-Filtered large-scale atmospheric circulation and global sea surface temperature. Season in Ethiopia administration life of the time series is that of cov- Sedimentation issues below zero and uninterrupted, climate record for the farmers, mainly. doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2859.1, Seleshi Y, Zanke U (2004) Recent changes in rainfall and rainy days in Ethiopia. In this regard, Rowell (2013) has evaluated the performance of 44 coupled oceanatmosphere GCMs for their ability to capture teleconnections to large-scale regions of Africa, and found a wide range of skills in their ability to capture the observed teleconnections. 0000009445 00000 n
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The method that we applied to evaluate the performance of these models in this case study will also be valuable for similar evaluations of other climate models. Revealed that Belg rainy day ( r = 0.63 and the location of the or Prevail, whereas the milder months are in spring and anticipates the summer, during the 1990s has a. doi:10.5194/gmd-4-723-2011, Mitchell TD, Jones PD (2005) An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations an associated high-resolution grids. (Rain amount is presented in mm). The period from March to May, as often happens in Ethiopia, is the warmest of the year, albeit by a few degrees. At 1,000 m, the mean values are close to 30. mainly, in the steppe areas and the Danakil Desert (Fig. This interactive shows the extent of the killing of lodgepole pine trees in western Canada. doi:10.2151/jmsj.81.169, Article Only the IOD to S-Ethiopia ON rainfall teleconnection in the HadGEM2 and HadGEM3-GA3.0 (N96) models is represented quite well. background-color: #024d73; Note that the apparently significant correlation over the southeastern part of Ethiopia with the IOD may be due to chance because it occupies only a rather small area. doi:10.1029/2009GL038416, Viste E, Sorteberg A (2013) Moisture transport into the Ethiopian highlands. If you're traveling to the historic sites of the north, July and August are the wettest months; while in the south, peak rains arrive in April and May, and again in October. Climate change will have key impacts on agriculture, livestock, water and human health in Ethiopia. Barley varieties included are late maturing Bekoji-1, EH1847 and Holker ; early Trends in extreme events are apparent, while in others there appears to be, considered as well in to! The aim of the study is to analyze the spatio-temporal variability and projection of rainfall and temperature (2021-2040) in Suha watershed, North West highlands of Ethiopia. During Belg (DecemberFebruary), the ITCZ is located well south of Ethiopia and the country predominantly falls under the influence of dry warm and cool northeasterly winds. The occurrence of . Kathril, Aspect Warper Rules, In Ethiopia, malaria is seasonal and unstable, causing frequent epidemics. Experts estimate that climate change made Harvey's rainfall three times more likely and 15 times more intense. 3.2 and 3.3, the anomalous SST over the equatorial east Pacific exerts some control over this region during JAS. Hubsite Printing Centers, All Rights Reserved, do we have dynamics in temperature and rainfall in ethiopia, packed to the rafters nathan and sammy break up, boston university medical center psychiatry residency, How To Set Multiple Reminders In Outlook 365. this brief report, drawing from a multi-year effort by the u.s. agency for international development (usaid) famine early warning systems network (fews net), examines recent trends in march-june, june-september, and march-september rainfall and temperature, identifying significant reductions in rainfall and increases in temperature over time in A region's weather patterns, usually tracked for at least 30 years, are considered its climate. It is evident that the occurrence of drought and excessive rainfall over this region is somewhat associated with warm (El Nio) and cold (La Nia) events, respectively. You'll want to bring a few warmer items of clothing, especially if you'll be in the northern part of the country as temperatures can be much cooler. Required fields are marked *, You may use these HTML tags and attributes: Earl Haig Secondary School Principal,
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. At this time of year, the skies are overcast and you'll need an umbrella to avoid getting soaked. minimum temperatures are for the same points and girds, but cover the period 19812011. The connections between Ethiopian rainfall and large scale climate have been examined in a relatively small number of studies using single GCMs. Reel Colors Handles, Over the Pacific, we use the Nio3.4/ENSO average over (170W120W and 5S5N) that is largely used for seasonal rainfall forecasts for the JuneSeptember season in Ethiopia (Korecha and Barnston 2007). In Ethiopia, traveling from one area to another can mean shifting from 60 degrees Fahrenheit (15 degrees Celsius) to95 degrees Fahrenheit (35 degrees Celsius) in a matter of hours. doi:10.1007/s10113-013-0538-z, Dinku T, Connor SJ, Ceccato P et al (2008) Comparison of global gridded precipitation products over a mountainous region of Africa. Reg Environ Change 14:799810. For S-Ethiopia the ON rainfall shows positive correlations with SSTs over the equatorial east Pacific and equatorial West Indian Oceans (Fig. Currently, the demand for climate model data is growing due to this increasing interest in climate information (Hewitt et al. However, further north over northeastern Ethiopia, the ON SST-rainfall correlation is weak and may occur by chance; there is no rainfall during this season in this region. Nash Ryan Cadoro Bakery, However, this type of information is not readily available at the necessary spatial resolution. Observed (CRU3.0) data are for the period 19221995.
doi:10.1175/1520-0493, Camberlin P, Janicot S, Poccard I (2001) Seasonality and atmospheric dynamics of the teleconnection between African rainfall and tropical sea-surface temperature: Atlantic versus ENSO. 2006; Ummenhofer et al. Recent rainfall data for South Eastern Ethiopia show trends of overall declines in rainfall between March and September from 1980 to the present. Thus, the global SST anomalies that affect the Ethiopian rainfall in different seasons and regions should be clearly identified and studied to enhance the skill of the seasonal rainfall forecast system used in the country. We produced maps of the local correlations from five SST indicesrepresenting the main tropical modes of variabilityto gridded monthly and seasonal rainfall over Ethiopia. Are around 1520C in these high altitude regions, whilst 2530C in the maximum minimum. doi:10.1002/joc.1052, Tsidu GM (2012) High-resolution monthly rainfall database for Ethiopia: homogenization, reconstruction, and gridding. H\@}&:TA8s1)C~'=0jRTo];pqtkx:c6;]tt6j&mwv/W}'^b7[. Only the low resolution version of HadGEM3-GA3.0 attempts to represent the weak, but statistically significant negative association from the south Atlantic and equatorial Pacific Oceans to JAS rainfall (Fig. It was predicted that its climate will warm up 0.7C and 2.3 by the 2020s and between 1.4C and 2.9C by the 2050s. Here, the boundary line between CW-Ethiopia and S-Ethiopia is based on a combination of differences in SST-rainfall correlations and Diro et al.s (2008) climatological rainfall zones. The mean maximum. (2011). Some examples of this longer time-scale variability might . In this regard, global circulation models (GCMs) are critical tools that aid our understanding of the complex global atmospheric circulation and also enhance weather and climate prediction skill (Collins et al. The rainfall over this region is positively related with Nio3.4 and IOD, and is statistically significant. Weather can change from hour-to-hour, day-to-day, month-to-month or even year-to-year. Degefu, M.A., Rowell, D.P. Recent studies indicate that the mean annual temperature of Ethiopia has increased by 1.3 C between 1960 and 2006, at an average rate of 0.28 C per decade and by 0.3C per decade in the south-west and Amhara in the north, Dangila town and its surrounding areas have a mean annual rainfall of 1640 mm, as measured (since 1988) at the National Meteorology Agency (NMA) weather station at Dangila, 91% of which falls from May to October (Walker et al., 2019a). In theory, Ethiopia'srainy seasonbegins in April and ends in September. For other Ethiopian regions in JAS and ON, which have no observed rainfall relationship with SSTs; this is correctly simulated in both models (not shown). The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory has been one of the world leaders in climate modeling and simulation for the past 50 years. Similarly, the SST over southern Indian Ocean shows some significant and negative correlation with the CW-Ethiopia JAS rainfall. 0000088529 00000 n
Time series of standardised seasonal rainfall variability and Nio3.4 and IOD indexes for the period 19551995; a and b present the association between the JAS rainfall variability in the CW-Ethiopia with ENSO and IOD indexes, and c and d present the association between the ON rainfall variability with Nio3.4 and IOD indexes. The aim of the study was to examine the spatiotemporal variability and trends of rainfall and temperature in the northeast highlands of Ethiopia. 0000004598 00000 n
For future breakthroughs in ENSO prediction are thus critical to future improvements to Ethiopia.! padding: 10px 0px 21px; Your email address will not be published. Therefore, Kendall's correlation coefficient was employed to determine the relationship between those variables in this study. Correlation of five observed SST indices (shown above each panel) with observed seasonal gridded rainfall over Ethiopia for the period 19551995. Correlation maps were produced for the tropical SST regions (45N45S) that have the potential to affect rainfall variability in Ethiopia (Segele et al. Climate Projections and Impacts Refer to the Climate Risk Profile (2016) for more information Climate Projections Increased Frequency/Intensity of Extreme Weather Events Changes to Season Duration/ Seasonal Precipitation Increased Temperature Key Climate Impact Areas Agriculture Livestock Human Health Water Funding and Key Indicators Korecha and Barnston 2007; Segele et al. 3. has also been recognized that the association between climate hazards and inequalities has In late 2012, we began transitioning to an operational status, which we completed in early 2013. Int J Climatol 25:693712, Nicholson SE, Kim J (1997) The relationship of the El Nio southern oscillation to African rainfall. In analyzing the results, the researchers found that we'll likely cross threshold for dangerous warming (+1.5 C) between 2027 and 2042. 0000126017 00000 n
Climate and vegetation dynamics are tightly coupled: regional climate affects land surface processes over a range of scales with unprecedented speed (IPCC 2007, Zhao et al 2011), while vegetation, in turn, affects climate through feedbacks via photosynthesis and evapotranspiration, changes in albedo and biogenic volatile organic compound emissions (Henderson-Sellers 1993, Fang et al 2003, Meng . More information: Rod X, Martinez PP, Siraj A and Pascual M. Malaria trends in Ethiopian highlands track the 2000 'slowdown' in global warming.Nature Communications. The Climate Resilient Green Economy (CRGE) strategy must, therefore, make greater efforts to embed young people's livelihoods and wellbeing in the strategy. This dataset provides monthly mean precipitation totals at 0.5 spatial resolution for the period 1901 to the present day. doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0896-x, Enfield DB, Mestas-Nunez AM, Mayer DA, Cid-Serrano L (1999) How ubiquitous is the dipole relationship in tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature? " /> Int J Climatol 33:249263. Temperature in Ethiopia decreased to 23.35 celsius in 2021 from 23.38 celsius in 2020. The best time to visit Addis is duringthe dry season (November to February). A quasi-objective method is employed to define coherent seasons and regions of SST-rainfall teleconnections for Ethiopia. Firstly, a preliminary subdivision . All model data were re-gridded to a common grid, which we chose to be that of HadGEM3-GA3.0-N216. Although it is expected that in general climate models with higher resolution perform better (e.g. Geosci Model Dev 4:223253. Conf. /*